A relatively light week given recent events, with the only notable releases being Consumer Sentiment and Retail Sales. Consumer Sentiment has broken its recent downtrend, ticking up slightly. However, in the face of rising gas prices and increasing costs of living, this may shift in the next release. Retail Sales have also shown a positive uptick, indicating that the economy remains resilient despite ongoing global events.

Consumer Sentiment
US consumer sentiment showed some improvement amid a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, but it’s still at record lows, according to new data from the University of Michigan. The Index of Consumer Sentiment showed consumer sentiment ended April with a final reading of 49.8, above the 48.5 reading economists expected but marking the lowest level on record — below readings taken during the financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and when inflation spiked following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Retail Sales
U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in March as the war with Iran boosted gasoline prices and led to a record surge in receipts at service stations, while tax refunds underpinned spending elsewhere.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.07%, with the current rate at 5.58%
• 30-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.07%, with the current rate at 6.23%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw an increase of 0.03% for this week. Current rates at 5.91%
• 30-Year VA rates saw an increase of 0.04% for this week. Current rates at 5.93%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 214,000 compared to the expected claims of 210,000. The prior week landed at 208,000.

What’s Ahead
Employment data, Trade Deficit, and Consumer Credit should be strong releases for this upcoming week.

With the full release of all the data for PPI and CPI—albeit delayed—we now have a clearer picture that the recent wars have pushed inflation to a three-year high.

The Federal Reserve has made no clear indication of its plans, but for the foreseeable future, much of the speculation points toward keeping rates at their current levels, with no plans to raise or cut them.

Consumer Sentiment reports, as well as the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, have also provided insight that conditions are slowing down, as businesses appear to be tempering activity amid the war in Iran. This should signal an overall slowdown across numerous markets.

Price Producer Index (PPI)
The producer-price index jumped 0.5% last month, the government said Tuesday, to mark the fourth straight big increase. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast a sharper 1.1% advance.

Core PPI
U.S. inflation at the wholesale level rose to a three-year high in March due to surging oil prices tied to the Iran war, but aside from energy, the increases in the cost of other goods and services were surprisingly tame. 

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.09%, with the current rate at 5.65%
• 30-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.07%, with the current rate at 6.30%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.03% for this week. Current rates at 5.88%
• 30-Year VA rates saw a decrease of -0.04% for this week. Current rates at 5.89%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 207,000 compared to the expected claims of 215,000. The prior week landed at 218,000.

What’s Ahead
Next week is the Federal Reserve’s PCE Index, which is known to be more timely in its data releases. This will be followed by the Personal Income and Spending data. Both are strong indicators of the current state of the market for consumers.