With the prior week’s release of the inflation data and next week’s release of the PCE Index data — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure — it has been an exceptionally light week for economic releases. The only notable reports were Leading Economic Indicators and Consumer Sentiment, both of which showed declines. Consumer sentiment, in particular, has seen a significant drop since the change in administration, reaching lows not seen in decades.
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US rose slightly by 0.1% in April 2026 to 97.4 (2016=100), following a 0.6% decline in March. Overall, the LEI fell by 0.7% over the six months between October 2025 and April 2026, a less severe rate of decline than its 1.0% contraction over the previous six months (April to October 2025).
Consumer Sentiment
The index of consumer sentiment dropped 4.1 points to 44.8 in May, touching the lowest level in the history of the survey going back to 1978, when it began to be published monthly.
Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
- 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.14%, bringing the current rate to 5.85%.
- 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.15%, bringing the current rate to 6.51%.
MND Rate Index
- 30-Year FHA rates saw a 0.01% increase, with current rate at 6.18%.
- 30-Year VA rates saw a 0.01% increase, with current rate at 6.20%.
Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 209,000 compared to the expected claims of 212,000. The previous week landed at 211,000.
What’s Ahead
The following week should feature the release of the PCE Index inflation data, with an otherwise light week surrounding it.
The CPI and PPI came in on schedule, and the results were warmer than expected, with the Producer Price Index showing an increase of 0.6% — nearly double the expected 0.3% rise. This is also reflected in the elevated, though expected, CPI reading of 0.6%. This is certainly being driven by increased fuel and energy costs.
