With the holiday of the previous week in addition to an extremely light release week, only the Consumer Sentiment report is weighing in on the lending markets. With both the inflation reports showing inflation cooling off, there is still some optimism about where the Federal Reserve will take things. This optimism is only cooled by the uncertainty the new presidency will bring. Many markets have responded in kind, with lending partners showing a trend of increasing rates and other markets preparing for uncertainty. Within the next few months, we will see how the new administration intends to handle monetary policy. This will have a greater impact than the Federal Reserve on the direction things will be headed in the future. Next week will be the first FOMC Rate Decision of the year, with many being optimistic about a potential rate cut with the recent inflation data.

Consumer Sentiment (Univ. of Michigan)

Consumer sentiment fell for the first time in six months, edging down 4% from December. While assessments of personal finances inched up for the fifth consecutive month, all other index components pulled back. Indeed, sentiment declines were broad-based and seen across incomes, wealth, and age groups. Buying conditions for durables softened but remained about 30% better than six months ago amid persistent views that purchasing now would avoid future price increases. 

Despite reporting stronger incomes this month, concerns about unemployment rose; about 47% of consumers expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead, the highest since the pandemic recession. January’s data closed on Inauguration Day, and consumers of all political leanings will continue to refine their views as Trump’s policies are clarified and implemented.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.11% with the current rate at 6.16%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.08% with the current rate at 6.96%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.07% for this week. Current rates at 6.54%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.07% for this week. Current rates at 6.55%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 223,000 compared to the expected claims of 221,000. The prior week landed at 217,000.

What’s Ahead

The FOMC rate decision is scheduled for next week, while the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the PCE Index, will be released at the end of the week. Additionally, the Personal Income and Spending report, a key forward indicator of future economic trends, is also set to be released. Finally, the Chicago Manufacturing PMI data is expected to be published.

Recent economic data brought significant relief, with both the CPI and PPI indicating that inflation was running cooler than expected. In the context of the current administration, this was welcome news, helping to ease concerns about potential monetary policy changes. The Federal Reserve has very frequently signaled they will follow the data and this time it was a positive result towards reducing rates further this year. The change in administration, however, still remains unknown and there is a lot of unrest across lending partners and markets alike. This was also followed by a better than expected Retail Sales report which has shown 2025 to start off with some economic momentum. Both reports are critical factors in shaping future rate adjustments. Despite this, lending partners have been raising rates in the last few months, driven largely by uncertainty tied to the transition of administrative positions.

Consumer Price Index

The increase in the core rate in the last 12 months dipped to 3.2% from 3.3%. But that still leaves it well above the Fed’s goal of 2% inflation. Meanwhile, overall consumer prices showed a sharper 0.4% increase largely because of higher food and energy prices. Those prices are expected to taper off in January.

Producer Price Index

Producer-price index rises just half as much as forecast. The producer-price index, where the seeds of inflation are planted, rose a mild 0.2% last month, the government said Tuesday. Wall Street had predicted an increase double that size.

Retail Sales

Retail sales grew steadily in December 2024, rounding out a strong holiday shopping season and signaling that the economy entered the new year with solid momentum. According to government data released Thursday, sales at U.S. retailers rose by a seasonally adjusted 0.4%, slightly below Wall Street’s expectations.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.13% with the current rate at 6.27%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.11% with the current rate at 7.04%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.08% for this week. Current rates at 6.47%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.09% for this week. Current rates at 6.48%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 217,000 compared to the expected claims of 210,000. The prior week landed at 203,000.

What’s Ahead

We should expect the Manufacturing PMI preliminary this week, as well as the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment report. Given the bank holiday from Martin Luther King, there is a relatively light release schedule otherwise.