While many useful indicators are set to be released this week, the previous week left us only with the Leading Economic Indicators, which showed signs of the economy slowing down in the future. Consumer Sentiment reports also indicated widespread dissatisfaction across all levels of income and education, largely due to the impacts of recent tariff decisions, which have been on hold.
We should expect next week to provide a clearer picture as decisions are made in the trade war between China and the United States. The PCE Prices, Non-farm Payrolls, Chicago Manufacturing PMI, Personal Income, and GDP estimates will offer more insight into the impact of the tariffs.
Concerns about inflation remain, but given the current stance on monetary policy, the Federal Reserve is much more likely not to react to inflation immediately, keeping its focus largely on the policies being set by the current administration.
Leading Economic Indicators
Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US declined by 0.7% in March 2025 to 100.5, after a decline of 0.2% (revised up from -0.3%) in February. The LEI also fell by 1.2% in the six-month period ending in March 2025, smaller rate of decline than its -2.3% contraction over the previous six months.
Consumer Sentiment
Consumer sentiment plunged 8% in April from the prior month, to a final reading of 52.2, the University of Michigan said in its latest survey released Friday. That was a slightly smaller decline than a preliminary reading from earlier this month, which didn’t capture people’s reaction to Trump’s 90-day tariff delay announced on April 9.
Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.09% for this week, with the current rate at 5.94%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.02% for this week, with the current rate at 6.81%
MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.11% for this week. Current rates at 6.25%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.11% for this week. Current rates at 6.27%
Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 220,000 compared to the expected claims of 220,000. The prior week landed at 216,000.
What’s Ahead
PCE Prices, Non-farm Payrolls, Chicago Manufacturing PMI, Personal Income, and GDP estimates are set to release next week. With other releases in the Global US Manufacturing PMI which historically isn’t a significant indicator but with a major shift in the dynamics of world trade, we can see major changes in those data release.
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