Inflation reports have shown their cards, and they have come in line with expectations. These newer reports rely on less data from sources overall, which is why the PCE Index remains the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator—and that distinction is even more relevant now.
Despite inflation coming in as expected, consumers are still feeling the steady pressure of price increases that are not keeping pace with wage growth. This is also consistent with what the PPI has shown, indicating that manufacturers are experiencing persistent inflationary pressure as well, though still in line with expectations. The Federal Reserve is still expected to reduce rates one more time heading into the new year.
Consumer Price Index
Inflation remained steady, with the December 2025 year-over-year CPI at 2.7%, matching November, while core CPI (excluding food/energy) was slightly lower at 2.6%, suggesting easing underlying pressures but with persistent shelter costs as the main driver. Month-over-month, CPI rose 0.3%, driven by food and shelter, though energy saw smaller gains and used cars declined, indicating a mixed but generally stable trend.
Producer Price Index
The cost of wholesale goods and services rose during the government shutdown and showed the persistence of inflation pressures in the guts of the U.S. economy. A combined report on producer prices showed a 0.2% increase in November and a 0.1% rise in October, the government said. The two months were combined into one report due to the recent federal shutdown.
Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
- 15-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.08%, with the current rate at 5.38%
- 30-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.10%, with the current rate at 6.06%
MND Rate Index
- 30-Year FHA rates saw an increase of 0.06%, with current rates at 5.75%
- 30-Year VA rates saw an increase of 0.07%, with current rates at 5.77%
Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 198,000 compared to the expected claims of 215,000. The prior week landed at 207,000.
What’s Ahead
Another FOMC Rate Decision for next week as well as some of the delayed Core PPI inflationary data.
The trade deficit dropped significantly this month, resulting in the smallest gap in the last 16 years. This has been entirely driven by the ongoing gold rush and, to a much less impactful degree, businesses working their way around high tariffs. The unemployment reports, however, have shed another light, showing a steady trend of unemployment rising and reaching a four-year high as of last week.
